Loss, Risk and Posterior Distributions

For a while, I’ve been thinking about the deployment of predictive algorithms in clinical decision support. Specifically, about the difference between what we understand about a model’s performance from the publication describing it and how this might be less informative when deployed. In short: what is the value of knowing that a model has good balanced accuracy or a high area under the ROC curve when sat with a patient and using the tool to make a clinical decision.

Clinical State and Dynamical Systems

In this series of blogposts, we look at some models of clinical state. The motivation is to document exploratory work with a colleague (Nick Meyer, who runs the SleepSight study) as we try and apply some theoretical ideas – for example (Nelson et al. 2017; Scheffer et al. 2009) – to ‘real-life’ data.